Zogby International's analysis of the Virginia gubernatorial election is worth a read:
"...Democrat Tim Kaine campaigned the final days before the Nov. 8 election with popular out-going Gov. Mark Warner, and his victory in the race squares with Zogby polling data that shows Warner helped win more votes for his fellow Democrat. Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore was not so lucky. Accepting a White House offer of presidential help stumping at the last minute, the Zogby poll shows President Bush’s appearance in Richmond the day before the election may have hurt more than it helped. Asked whether the Bush appearance made them more or less likely to support Mr. Kilgore, just 10% said more likely, while 21% said it made them less likely."