Friday, July 01, 2011

Allen vs. Kaine

Polls say the Allen vs. Kaine heavyweight title fight is tied, one minute into the first round. Does that matter?

Maybe. Putting name-calling and possible meltdowns aside, it seems to me that young voters (under 25) and people who've moved here recently will decide this one. Most of them don't have much history of supporting either one when he was governor.

Most older voters, who are longtime Virginians, already have their minds made up. Either they can live with the candidate's history, or they can't. So, who's at the top of the ticket could make a big difference.

Larry Sabato is probably right that a candidate the likes of Michele Bachmann would not help Allen. Yet, at this point it's easy to believe the GOP will continue its drift to the right for the immediate future.

Ideology aside, which one is more likeable depends on what you like. When the negative campaigning starts and the two candidates' histories are presented to new voters in Virginia that will be a challenge for Allen, because he simply can't ask people to forget about his campaign's free-fall in 2006. In 2012 he will have to handle it very differently for his general approval rating to rise much above where it is now ... but with more gaffes it could go lower.

At this point Kaine seems to be in a good position.

No comments: