Thursday, June 11, 2009

After the Storm

Creigh Deeds surged? Terry McAuliffe melted down? Of the three candidates, which guy would the GOP rather have faced?
Of course, the instant wisdom is telling us that Deeds surged, that he came from behind. That perception is based largely on believing opinion polls, as if such devices can be counted on as reliable snapshots of reality. Survey USA had McAuliffe ahead of Deeds by six points only two weeks ago.

While it does appear Deeds had momentum on his side in the last month, it’s hard to believe he actually moved 20 points in two weeks. It's easier to believe the polls missed something.
Click here to read my analysis of the Democratic primary results, "After the Storm: Deeds Wins in Landslide," at

1 comment:

James Young said...

I tend to agree. Polls in the context of a primary seem pretty worthless to me, as a rule, and this certainly lends credence to that view.