When will Libby walk?

Now that I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby has been told by the judge that he’s soon going to have to wage his continued attempts to overturn his convictions from behind bars, the pressure on President George W. Bush to pardon Libby is going to grow with each summer day that passes.

A piece on this topic by Mike Allen at The Politico was posted yesterday.

“...Convicted by a federal jury in March of obstruction of justice, perjury and lying to the FBI during the CIA leak investigation, Vice President Cheney’s former chief of staff is to surrender in the next few weeks to begin serving his sentence, if his emergency appeal is rejected. Some Republicans sense momentum toward some kind of presidential action toward Libby, as evidenced by the increased openness shown by the 2008 GOP presidential candidates to a pardon.”

Click here to read the rest of Allen's piece.

To me, it isn’t a question of whether Bush will intervene. I have little doubt that eventually he will. It’s a matter of how and when. Which means I see Bush as facing the decision of whether to pardon Lewis, outright, or to reduce his 30-months sentence. And, it means that Cheney needs to decide when is the best time to tell Bush to make such a tricky move -- one that surely will draw fire from many Democrats, as well as some Republicans.

This situation screams out for predictions. So, here is mine:

SLANTblog says Bush will commute Libby’s sentence, rather than pardon him. Dubya will proclaim his action to spring Scooter to be a strictly “humanitarian” move. This will happen in the Dog Days of August. And, to provide some cover for trumping what a jury decided and a judge ruled, Bush will “regretfully” also accept the resignation of his embattled Attorney General Alberto Gonzales within days, maybe even hours, of springing Libby from the pokey.

Someone should start a contest/pool to name the day Bush will free Libby. Everybody kick in a dollar ... earliest prediction to name the exact date wins all.